Teranet House Price Index for July 2009

SEPTEMBER 2009

Monthly price rises in all markets surveyed Canadian home prices in July were down 5.1% from a year earlier, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™. Though it was the eighth consecutive 12-month decline, it was also the first time in 13 months that prices in every region covered by the index were up from the month before. For the composite index it was a third consecutive monthly rise. The trend reversal is consistent with improving market conditions for the country as a whole in recent months - more homes have been selling and fewer have been coming on the market. Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ Contact Us For general enquiries: simon.cote@tres.bnc.ca For licenses covering all index-linked products, please contact: Simon Côté simon.cote@tres.bnc.ca 514 879-5379 Website www.housepriceindex.ca

The July monthly rises were 2.6% in Ottawa, 2.2% in Toronto, 1.5% in Vancouver, 0.8% in Halifax, 0.7% in Montreal and 1.0% in Calgary. For Calgary it was a first monthly rise after 12 consecutive months of decline. In three of the six markets surveyed, July prices were also above the pre-recession peak, as Halifax and Ottawa joined Montreal on this score. In the other markets, prices were still below those of a year earlier. The decline was 4.6% in Toronto, 9.3% in Vancouver and 11.1% in Calgary. Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca. Metropolitan area Index level July 2009 % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak Date Calgary 149.75 1.0 % -11.1 % -14.6% August 2007 Halifax 122.16 0.8 % 0.5 % 0.0% July 2009 Montreal 124.85 0.7 % 2.7 % 0.0% July 2009 Ottawa 118.64 2.6 % 2.6 % 0.0% July 2009 Toronto 110.88 2.2 % -4.6 % -5.5% August 2008 Vancouver 136.67 1.5 % -9.3 % -9.3% June 2008 National Composite 123.87 1.6 % -5.1 % -5.3% August 2008 The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005. By: Marc Pinsonneault Senior Economist Econony & Strategy Group National Bank Financial Group Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report. 1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.

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Vancouver CMA CMHC Data for August 2009

CMHC released housing market data for the month of August 2009 and here is the data for the Vancouver area.

927 Starts
18,992 Under Construction
1,227 Completions

The Psy-Fi Blog: Sexual Trading

I think we need to think about what is talked about in this post in terms of our local real estate market. Have a read.

The Psy-Fi Blog: Sexual Trading

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Great Interview

I think this is a must read interview.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=123526#post123526

What to do?

Well, I am not sure how to put this exactly. I am thinking of taking an extended break from this blog because of competing priorities. I have a wife, two kids, hobbies, work, friends, etc and, quite fairly, this blog is what gets cut when the other priorities come up.

I feel a little torn sometimes since I really am interested in writing about the subject matter and I would like more time to do better research and crafting interesting posts but it just isn't possible with my lifestyle right now.

I don't think I will shut down the blog completely since I believe I will find time to post once in a while and some of the other regular contributors will likely want to post from time to time, but you shouldn't expect the same regular posts that have been a big part of this blog since January 2007.

Fraser Valley Real Estate - August 2009 with Charts

Here are the charts based on the data released by the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board for the month of August 2009.

Sales were at a very high level compared to other Augusts.



Active Listings are on the high side.


Months of Inventory is at 5 which represents a balanced market.

The FVREB House Price Index is still 7% lower than peak level but it has risen 6% since the low.

Price changes are still highly correlated to the supply / demand mix as represented by Months of Inventory.

Fraser Valley Real Estate - August 2009

From the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board:

(Surrey, BC) - The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board credits ‘move-up’ buyers and greater affordability for the second best August in its real estate sales history, bolstered by a summer of historically low interest rates.

There were 1,786 sales processed in August, an increase of 96 per cent compared to the 910 sales during the same month last year. Add in sales from June and July generated by many first-time buyers and the result is 5,857 sales – outperforming the summer of 2007, at 5,800, but far from matching 2005, when summer sales peaked at 6,866.

“The last three months was a welcome return to a busier, more stable market, but also a discerning one,” describes Paul Penner, President of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. “Not every house was flying off the shelf like they did four years ago.”

“It’s a more complex market now, with variations in activity depending on the area and price and it requires knowledge, knowing what’s selling, for how much, and why.”

Penner says stability has returned to house prices, but with the average days on market in the Fraser Valley effectively remaining unchanged for six months, at just under 60 days for most property types, pricing remains highly competitive.

“Our August market poll reveals how much price matters. Over half of Fraser Valley buyers qualified for a conventional mortgage putting 25 per cent or more down, yet 39 per cent of REALTORS® who participated in our survey reported challenges in closing sales due to their clients’ inability to reach financing terms.”

The MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price of a detached home in August was $483,839, a decrease of 3.5 per cent compared to August 2008, when it was $501,317. In the last three months, the HPI benchmark price of a detached home has increased by 3.8 per cent. The HPI benchmark price of Fraser Valley townhouses decreased 4.7 per cent from $325,833 in August 2008 to $310,389 in August 2009, and in the last three months has increased by 4 per cent. The benchmark price of apartments also decreased year-over-year by 5.9 per cent, going from $250,888 in August of last year to $236,146 in August 2009, and has increased by 1.7 per cent in the last three months.

The number of active Fraser Valley listings in August decreased 5 per cent from July, dropping to 8,987 listings. This was a 24 per cent decrease from last year. The MLS® saw 2,470 new listings come on stream in August, 2 per cent fewer than in August 2008 and 23 per cent less than this past July.