Units under construction hit another record high at 23,950.
Starts were high at 1907. Completions were low at 1067.
Completed and unabsorbed units hit a new high at 1194. This is significant as it directly adds to the overall supply mix and I would term newly completed units as the "smart money" supply. Developers will cut prices quickly rather than sit on inventory. This is happening in Langley/Surrey right now. I see completed new units that have sat for 6 months having the price dropped gradually every month. The longer they sit unsold, the faster the price drops.
New home supply is expanding rapidly with even more units under construction now and prices have peaked in the Valley on new homes. This is very similar to US bubble markets where new homes are the leading indicator to what happens to existing homes.
Clearly at this point new supply completing now and scheduled to complete in the next 12 months is oversupply as evidenced by the ratio of new people to completions. Population growth is low but supply and the supply pipeline is hitting record highs. Add all of the speculator held inventory and we have a recipe for a major crash in our local market - it's all a question of when.
No comments:
Post a Comment