I didn't look at the BC Budget in too much detail, but something on the radio caught my ear. Sure enough, I confirmed it on this pdf on page 87.
The BC Budget hinges on the projected unemployment rate averaging 6.2% in 2009. Have a look at the January 2009 numbers here. The January number is 6.1%. Does anyone really think that we won't see that go higher in February and then farther up from there?
I think the budget projection is pie-in-the-sky. I would say a more realistic projection, given the construction sector dry-up, is 8.7% by the end of 2009, with an average of 7.5% for the year.
The 2010 projection is 6.0%. By then, most condos under construction will have completed. Construction employment will be back below historical averages. The Olympics will be over as well. Unless every other sector suddenly pulls up the slack, there is a serious risk of double digit unemployment rates. 6.0% is a total joke.
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