Thursday, May 20, 2010

Due to Popular Demand: Update on the TED Spread

Five-year view (suggested by Gherard L).


Anonymous: What about the TED spread? It's not looking good lately.

Morganovich: you [sic] will not hear MP discuss the TED spread again as it no longer agrees with his position and i [sic] fear that his use of data is quite selective.  but [sic] TED is telling us something (especially with m3 [sic] in deep contraction): welcome to liquidity crunch part 2.

Therefore, by popular demand, the TED Spread is presented in the two charts above.  The TED spread is currently at 32.89 basis points as of today, about the same level as the spring of 2007 three years ago, and far, far below the triple-digit levels that prevailed betwen mid-2007 and early 2009.  If  there's any major credit risk concerns in the U.S. economy, it's sure not showing up yet in the TED spread, which continues to "look pretty good lately."

Anonymous: "The market is not worried about the US. It's worried about Europe. Check 1 month LIBOR. It's heading back up past the summer levels last year."

Here's one month LIBOR, it's close to a 20-year low:

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