The charts above over the last 12 months of: a) the Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index (data here) and the S&P 500 Volatility Index (data here) show that the financial markets went through a rough patch in May, June and July of slightly elevated risk, but have now recovered to the conditions that prevailed in the spring. The recent improvements in these two daily market measures of risk should probably mean that the chances of a double-dip recession are much less likely now than at any time over the last four months.
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