SELL SP 500 Index - Tomorrow November 03, 2010
After patiently waiting, and considering the significant man-made financial events (USA election and the Federal Reserve QE2 tomorrow) we are herein finally pulling the sell trigger; - tomorrow.
Our analysis tonight is shown in a rather super-sized format of written material and four exhibits that in pictorial form, speak millions of trend and cycle words.
My apologies for the earlier draft version with grammar and spelling mistakes but I wanted to get the content up ASAP and was preoccupied watching the USA election results stream in. If you are good at technical analysis or do not require written explanation - skip directly to the charts.
Yes it happens to be Ben Bernanke and QE2 news release day and FOMC tomorrow, yet frankly Bernanke is losing credibility and more important, at zero interest rates the FED is out of effective monetary ammunition.
As we implied in last night's blog, the greedy global central bankers and their incessant money-printing campaign - are the problem.
Our BBTL blog, as perhaps the most accurate SP500 market advisory blog recently has been bullish on the SP500 now for over two months or specifically since September 01, 2010. Tomorrow all of that will change.
Tomorrow, we FLIP the buy-sell switch to the bearish or sell-side position. This is therefore a special one day ADVANCE WARNING update. Our advice specifically, is that the trend should change - tomorrow. Those of you glued to your technical analysis computer screen using inter-day charts, may be able to time the trend change spot on.
In case you are wondering, yes we provided a similar but a more detailed advance warning including proprietary cycles, and specific ideas to our paid clients recently in a detailed form, and again early today. Being a subscriber has advantages.
The first chart below, is a similar chart sent out to clients (albeit with a bit more end of day closing data) earlier today when markets were open.
So as for the SP 500 Index, you are now witnessing our first BBTL blog SELL, and better yet, being provided a market call slightly in advance of the event. This also means we need to add a few "what if" statements, disclaimers, and caveats.
Perhaps, if you like computer programming language, you may prefer to think in "if -then-else" lingo. Please note that we do not accept or take on any responsibility for your trades. We consider this an education real-time classroom session as opposed to trading advice (which it is not). Please be personally responsible for your actions.
As we have educated here on our blog before in detail, we also have a proprietary thesis about Man-made upset mechanism(s) and how they impact financial markets. In the past, we discussed Natural Law versus man-made intervention, or a cycle inversion as we termed it. In Elliott Wave (EW) terms, these upsets can be explained by EW extensions or EW wave failures.
Although we cannot guarantee anything (if you want a guarantee buy a toaster), frankly, we believe the FOMC statement tomorrow will quickly be recognized as a non-event.
Yes, Ben is out of ammunition. When I was a fighter pilot flying a F104 for NATO in my youth, the Air Force referred to the term "Winchester". Winchester in essence is the maxim for a fighter pilot in the air, caught doing his job without the proper tools or as we might say - in deep trouble. In our view Ben Bernanke is Winchester.
We must therefore caution, (if-then-else) if we are wrong about Ben, and the FED decides to buy a trillion dollars of stock on the NYSE as part of QE2 tomorrow, the market then will go up. In that case it will not adhere to the direction we are herein forecasting - it will invert (or create an EW extension).
Further, we want to be fully honest with you. The primary method we are using in our forecast herein is cycles and Natural Law beyond what is being shown.
Moreover, we use proprietary methods in our view, yet undiscovered to the world. Since Gann inspired much or our work we suspect Gann had deep insights into such exact yet unique cycles. There may also be a small handful of wizards or financial giants using somewhat similar techniques and managing money. We know of one that had hinted of this and whom had considerable access to highly sophisticated computer analysis.
Further, many of the cycles used in our analysis are planetary related. Yes.
We have been teaching this astro-cycle theory theory for several years to our paid clients. Yet frankly, it is not all that astro-easy.
There are several other Natural Law theories at work, including hypothesis that we borrow from ancient math, physics, and even music; much as Gann initially implied a hundred years ago. The man was a true genius.
Some of you may be very skeptical.
Yet today, the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in New Mexico sent out an email to their members saying they had clearly determined that it was the planets as the causal factor behind stock market movements.
We believe, better expressed this is only partially correct since our solution as we discovered after many years of trying various methods, involves considerable other aspects of science, especially physics and math in ways that Natural Law becomes intertwined. As Einstein implied - God did not merely roll the dice.
So how valuable is this to anyone? Well I guess over time you will have to become the judge.
So before we conclude and let you go onto examine the graphical exhibits below, to decide your action if any, that you might take, we want to close with a few minor caveats.
1. As we are giving a market reversal call in advance of trend change, we must warn that at this stage it is a highly aggressive swing trade. Some of you conservative types should wait for the trend and confirm our thesis and market call. Trend trading is far safer. We have included two hard stops that any trader might use (see exhibits).
2. The astro and other cycles we used today are near perfect for this forecast, but not exactly perfect for an ideal CIT tomorrow. Such cycles as they create change are seldom perfect. In a more perfect Astro world our CIT or turn, would have come closer to the New Moon this weekend.
Don't let anyone tell you the Moon does not impact the financial markets. It impacts the powerful tidal forces on Earth, and exposes or hides our planet from the highly charged plasma and solar wind surrounding our planet. We hypothesize, in this way, it impacts our mood changes or as EW theory calls it social mood. Anyone who does serious math, back testing and research into our lunar assertion should be able to spot some of what we teach and educate on in detail.
We also recommend Christopher Carolan's book titles the Spiral Calendar, which we (our KRTT family) read decades ago.
All in all considering Luna, it is conceivable that the change in trend tomorrow may be slow in getting started. As you all know at present, and as we have described in past blogs, the financial markets have been in an extremely stable state - as if frozen.
So technically, we may have to wait a little longer for the bullish markets to thaw. This theory will expire and become invalid - if then else - after this weekend and the New Moon. On the other hand, large institutions may see through Bernanke and a fake FED QE2, and immediately vote with sell tickets to set the trend in motion.
3. Last and certainly not least, by following this blog on an ongoing basis, you are being exposed to new financial theories and perhaps some might say, a dramatic new way of looking at financial markets.
Yet, consider as we have pointed out on one exhibit, if you were properly trained in technical analysis or Elliott Wave (EW) theory, you could have reached the exact same conclusion.
Remember, our training in technical analysis (TA) or EW theory is only as good as your teacher. Finding the highly effective TA teacher is as close to you as a phone call to KRTT.
Some of you will potentially disagree with our wave counts or EW formatting. That is good. It means you are asking questions. Remember, the quality of the answer you receive, will be influenced by the merit and quality of your question.
4. Last, we say again if you enjoy this blog, please register and follow it. As we say - pass the word.
Now finally - to the real analysis of trend and cycle truth. The charts and graphics I provided below this evening are worth far more than my rambling words. On this important mid-term election eve in the USA, and equally important era of change we are living in; I close by saying God Bless America.
Sincerely,
James Kelly Sr.,
Editor in Chief, BBTL Blog
www.KRTT.com
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