Population report Q2 2010

The Statcan quarterly population report is released today. Get your pdf here. This is always covered breathlessly in the local media, picking out data points that confirm the well-known fact that not only does everyone WANT to live here, they actually ARE moving here. Beyond confirming our own natural attractiveness, it also apparently provides some justification for our rising house prices.

Some context.

First, net migrants from other provinces is barely over zero. In fact, we have just barely gained back what was lost from 1998-2003. In TOTAL since Q1 1998, we are up a net 6,118 bodies from interprovincial migration.

Next, immigration. Immigration is doing fine. We are at the same level in terms of number of bodies that we reached in the mid 1990s. As a percent of population, it is lower than the mid-90s.
Combine these together and throw the natural growth (births - deaths) into the mix and you get total pop growth. Here it is. For new bodies, we have a cyclical peak in the late 90s, but lower than previous cyclical peaks. As a percent of population, however, this cyclical peak was around half of previous peaks--and lower than previous troughs!

How remarkable the 2000s were for population growth can be made clear by ranking the 5-year periods from 1960 to 2009 by population growth. 2000-04 and 2005-2009 were dead last. So much for the population boom.

School Closures in Vancouver

The Vancouver School Board has announced (PDF) closures of 11 schools.

As you may be aware, trustees faced difficult financial decisions this spring, and last evening approved a budget that includes approximately $16 million in spending reductions and eliminates 137 positions. We also received a report earlier this month from a government appointed special advisor recommending we consider school closures to reduce our costs.

It is in this context that district management prepared a list of schools that trustees might consider for possible closure. The schools on the pre-notification list were selected because of a number of factors, including low enrolment, under utilization and the availability of space at neighbouring schools.

Without delving into the politics of the matter there has been a general trend towards lower public school enrollment in the past number of years. This is not to say that the school-age population is necessarily dropping -- parents may be opting for private or home schooling instead. Statistics do indicate a dropping school-age population in Vancouver but, interestingly, the number of family-sized dwellings in the city has not commensurately dropped.

Looking at recent birth rates, it is likely these school closures may be a bit premature. But beyond even that, a look at the city's available housing stock shows a strange dichotomy between dwellings designed for families with school-age children and the actual residents of these dwellings. At some point it would seem reasonable the utility of these dwelling should match the residents' needs by way of demographic shift back towards more children or re-development away from the usual family-oriented architecture.