Teranet Index - November 2010

JANUARY 2011

Third consecutive monthly price decline in November Canadian home prices in November were down 0.2% from the previous month, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™. This retreat followed monthly declines of 0.4% in October and 1.1% in September after a run of 16 consecutive increases. November prices were down from the previous month in four of the six metropolitan markets surveyed. Declines of 0.9% in Ottawa and 0.5% in Toronto were each the third in a row. The Calgary decline of 0.7% was the fourth in a row. Halifax prices were down 0.8%. Montreal prices were again flat from the month before. Prices in Vancouver were up 0.6%. After three consecutive months of decline in the composite index, Canadian home prices are still 4.8% above the pre-recession peak of August 2008. Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ Contact Us For general enquiries: info@housepriceindex.ca For licenses covering all index-linked products, please contact: Simon Côté 514 879-5379 Website www.housepriceindex.ca

The November result was reflected in a further deceleration of the 12-month rise of the composite index, to 4.9%. It was the fifth consecutive month of deceleration, leaving the 12-month increase the smallest since December 2009. Market by market, the 12-month changes range quite widely: increases of 7.2% in Ottawa, 7.1% Montreal, 5.9% in Vancouver, 5.1% in Toronto and 2.7% in Halifax, with a decrease of 1.5% in Calgary. Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association show generally balanced conditions in major urban markets in December. Toronto and Vancouver could even be considered sellers' markets. Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca. Metropolitan area Index level November % change m/m % change y/y Calgary 154.21 -0.7 % -1.5 % Halifax 127.91 -0.8 % 2.7 % Montreal 135.56 0.0 % 7.1 % Ottawa 131.07 -0.9 % 7.2 % Toronto 124.21 -0.5 % 5.1 % Vancouver 155.90 0.6 % 5.9 % National Composite 137.07 -0.2 % 4.9 % The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005. By: Marc Pinsonneault Senior Economist Economy & Strategy Group National Bank Financial Group Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report. 1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.

Teranet House Price Index - July 2010

SEPTEMBER 2010

Monthly price rise of 0.5% in July Canadian home prices in July were up 12.4% from a year earlier, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™. It was the smallest 12-month gain in four months. Such a deceleration was observed in Toronto and Vancouver, where the 12-month increase was nevertheless more than 14%. In Ottawa it was 10.9%. In the other three markets, it was more moderate, ranging from 6.5% to 8.5%. For the first time in four months, prices did not rise from the month before in all six markets. The Vancouver index was down 0.3% from June. The monthly rises were 0.2% in Halifax, 0.4% in Montreal and Calgary, 1.2% in Toronto and 1.5% in Ottawa. It is plausible to think the index movement in the last two markets was influenced by transactions timed to avoid the July 1 introduction of the harmonized sales tax in Ontario. For the composite index as a whole the monthly rise was 0.5%, the smallest in four months. It was the 15th monthly rise, making this run of increases the longest since October 2006. Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ Contact Us For general enquiries: info@housepriceindex.ca For licenses covering all index-linked products, please contact: Simon Côté 514 879-5379 Website www.housepriceindex.ca

According to the Canadian Real estate Association, from March to August of this year, more existing homes came on the market than were sold. Therefore, the resale market has been slackening across Canada. Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca. Metropolitan area Index level July 2010 % change m/m % change y/y Calgary 161.21 0.4 % 7.7 % Halifax 130.06 0.2 % 6.5 % Montreal 135.45 0.4 % 8.5 % Ottawa 131.53 1.5 % 10.9 % Toronto 127.43 1.2 % 14.9 % Vancouver 155.97 -0.3 % 14.1 % National Composite 139.18 0.5 % 12.4 % The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005. By: Marc Pinsonneault Senior Economist Economy & Strategy Group National Bank Financial Group Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report. 1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.

FVREB August 2010 Statistics

The FVREB releases stats today. Here they are.

A notable note is that the price of the residential benchmark is down -0.3% from August 2007.

Flat prices for 3 years is starting to take the wind out of the sails of the relentless pumpers. The psychology is changing and the fall should be interesting.

Charts to come later.

Teranet House Price Index - June 2010

AUGUST 2010

Monthly price rise of 1.5% in June Canadian home prices in June were up 13.6% from a year earlier, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™. The 12-month gain, identical to that of May, was strongly influenced by Vancouver, up 16.3%, and Toronto, up 16.2%. In the other four markets surveyed, the 12-month rise ranged from 7.1% in Halifax to 12.0% in Ottawa. In Calgary it was 8.3% and in Montreal 8.7%. June was the third consecutive month in which prices were up from the month before in all six metropolitan areas surveyed. The monthly rise of the composite index, 1.5%, was the largest since last August. The monthly rise was 2.7% in Ottawa, 2.4% in Toronto, 1.4% in Montreal, 1.3% in Halifax, 0.8% in Vancouver and 0.2% in Calgary. For the composite index it was the 14th straight monthly increase, the longest such run since October 2006. Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ Contact Us For general enquiries: info@housepriceindex.ca For licenses covering all index-linked products, please contact: Simon Côté 514 879-5379 Website www.housepriceindex.ca

Since the resale market has been slackening across Canada - from April to July of this year, more existing homes came on the market than were sold - it is too early to conclude that the relatively vigorous prices rises of April, May and June launched a trend. The prospect of harmonized sales taxes coming into effect July 1 in Ontario and B.C. may have stimulated sales in Vancouver, Toronto and Ottawa in the preceding months. Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca. Metropolitan area Index level June 2010 % change m/m % change y/y Calgary 160.58 0.2 % 8.3 % Halifax 129.84 1.3 % 7.1 % Montreal 134.87 1.4 % 8.7 % Ottawa 129.58 2.7 % 12.0 % Toronto 125.98 2.4 % 16.2 % Vancouver 156.48 0.8 % 16.3 % National Composite 138.42 1.5 % 13.6 % The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005. By: Marc Pinsonneault Senior Economist Economy & Strategy National Bank Financial Group Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report.

Vancouver Real Estate Market Roller Coaster

From http://vancouvercondo.info/coaster - Good work.

Vancouver RE market rollercoaster from Vancouver Condo Info on Vimeo.

House Price Comparisons

Just sayin'...

Over at vancouvercondo.info is a constant stream of listings and sales data from commenters for the Greater Vancouver area. The listings growth is robust, as is the level of sales. We are on track to bust records for April listings and sales in recent memory. What will happen to prices, specifically the benchmark and house price index?

According to mohican's months of inventory to price change correlation analysis, the benchmark price will not start substantially falling until sales slow or active listings continue to increase at breakneck speed. Below is the half-over-half prices changes and 3 month moving average of months of inventory (i.e. active listings at month-end divided by sales from the month) on a time and scatter plot. (I extrapolated expected April MOI on the time plot.) This series provides the best correlation of the data. I've also included the scatter plot on semilog which allows the low MOI data to be better resolved.


Although not immediately obvious from the graphs, assuming the rate of sales does slow, a meaningful price drop from current levels is unlikely to materialize until sometime in the summer. If sales remain robust it is unlikely prices will drop unless active listings significantly increase. It's worth asking who is selling, or trying to sell. That listings are increasing fast may be a harbinger for lower sales going forward.

Given there appears to be an integral component to listings growth, it is unlikely listings growth will slow until sometime in the summer. Hat tip to PaulB for the hourly numbers. This one's for you and the inventory junkies. Subliminal message at 1:05.

Teranet: September 2009 House Price Index

A smaller but still robust monthly rise Canadian home prices in September were down 1.8% from a year earlier, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™. It was the tenth consecutive 12-month decline, but the 12-month decline has been diminishing steadily since it peaked at 6.9% in May. The reason is that September was the fifth straight month in which the index reading for Canada as a whole was up from the month before. The September monthly rise of 1.3% was the smallest in four months but still vigorous. The vigour is consistent with an improvement in market conditions over 2009 to date - more homes have been selling and fewer have been coming on the market. Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ Contact Us For general enquiries: simon.cote@tres.bnc.ca For licenses covering all index-linked products, please contact: Simon Côté simon.cote@tres.bnc.ca 514 879-5379 Website www.housepriceindex.ca

For the first time in three months, prices were down slightly from the month before in one of the six metropolitan markets surveyed, Montreal (−0.2%). This decline was not due to a deterioration of market conditions. According the Greater Montreal Real Estate Board, home sales were up from a year earlier in every month from May to October while new listings have declined. Toronto prices were up 1.5% from the month before, the smallest increase since the April bottom but still substantial. If October shows the same rise, Toronto prices will be back to their peak of August 2008. As for the other four markets, the September monthly rises were 2.1% in Vancouver, 1.1% in Calgary, 0.9% in Ottawa and 0.6% in Halifax. The continuing 12-month deflation of the composite index (−1.8%) is attributable to three of the six markets: Calgary (−5.4%), Vancouver (−5.1%) and Toronto (−1.0%). In the other three markets, prices were up from a year earlier: Ottawa (3.4%), Montreal (2.9%) and Halifax (1.7%). Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca. Metropolitan area Index level September 2009 % change m/m % change y/y Calgary 154.32 1.1 % -5.4 % Halifax 123.58 0.6 % 1.7 % Montreal 126.05 -0.2 % 2.9 % Ottawa 121.49 0.9 % 3.4 % Toronto 115.54 1.5 % -1.0 % Vancouver 141.85 2.1 % -5.1 % National Composite 127.89 1.3 % -1.8 % The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005. By: Marc Pinsonneault Senior economist Economy & Strategy Group National Bank Financial Group Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report. 1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.