Things I've Read

Great synopsis from Calculated Risk - The Adjustment Process
Canadian Banks ranked safest in world - Globe and Mail
The Stock Market is presenting buying opportunities now - Canoe Money

Are you reading anything interesting out there?

Bank Raises Rates on Variable Rate Mortgages

LORI MCLEOD, Globe and Mail Update, October 6, 2008 at 8:46 PM EDT

The latest victims of the growing financial crisis could be the standard discount available to consumers on variable mortgages, and home equity loans at prime.

In a move expected to be followed by other banks, all of which have been stung by higher funding costs, TD Canada Trust is raising rates on both types of loans, effective Oct. 7.

Rates on these products will rise to 5.75 per cent, a percentage point above the prime rate. Only last week, TD eliminated the discount on its variable rate mortgages, offering them at the prime rate of 4.75 per cent. During the housing boom of the past several years, consumers could often get their bank to drop the rate by half or even up to a full percentage point.

“While TD Canada Trust has endeavoured to not pass on the increases in rates to its consumers, this change reflects steadily increasing costs of funds in the current economic environment,” the bank said in a statement.

The percentage point increase raises the term interest cost on a $250,000 variable rate mortgage by $12,247.22 over five years, according to Royal Bank of Canada's online mortgage calculator. The difference is based on a 25-year amortization, a variable rate mortgage with a five-year term and bi-weekly payments. On that basis, the bi-weekly payment amount rises to $725.90 from $657.83.

The credit crisis and economic uncertainty have caused banks to stockpile their cash. That's driving up their short-term cost of borrowing from one another, and means margins on variable rate mortgage products are shrinking.

Rates on fixed-term mortgages went up last week too, as banks have passed on fewer of their savings from falling bond yields to consumers to consumers.

“The deterioration of global credit markets is beginning to squeeze the ability of even the strongest of financial institutions to raise longer-term funds, which could limit the provision of longer-term credit in Canada to businesses and households,” federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said in a statement Monday.

“Hopefully this isn't a permanent shift, but a short-term reaction to conditions the likes of which we really haven't seen before,” said Gary Siegle, regional manager at mortgage broker Invis.

With a discount, some customers can still get five-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 5.55 per cent, meaning a bi-weekly payment of $707.66 on a $250,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years. This means those looking for peace of mind in the current market turmoil aren't paying a premium to lock in, Mr. Siegle said.

EVERYBODY PANIC!

The TSX was down over 10% this morning for whatever reason fancies the average investor. The Toronto market is down over 30% in the past 4 months and the S&P500 is down over 30% in the past 12 months. I'm sure some new doom is sure to envelope our country, shuttering our businesses and turning us all into stark raving mad lunatics.

Well maybe it isn't quite that bad and to this observer of human behaviour, it seems a little overdone now. I have recognized that timing the market bottom is an impossible feat but there are two things that are common about market bottoms:

1) Despair and hopelessness. Check.

2) Massive redemptions of mutual funds. Check. See story here.

Fraser Valley Real Estate Values Falling

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board area has witnessed a dramatic turnaround from the heyday of 2004 through 2007. Prices are now falling at a rate of 2.5% per quarter and the bottom is far from being in. In fact, I fully expect prices to drop dramatically over the next 6 months.


Sales are very low for this time of year and are at levels normally reserved for the slowest months of the year.


Active Listings rose during September and are at the highest ever recorded levels.

Months of inventory is very high, leading to dramatic downward price pressure. There is always a seller who 'must sell' and buyers never 'must buy' so price drops are inevitable at these inventory levels.

The correlation between supply / demand and price changes continues to be exceptionally strong.


Prices are continuing to fall.


Cheers.

REBGV Area Records Year over Year Price Drops

Well, its a day many real estate bears have been looking for - the day that the average detached house in the Vancouver area would be cheaper than 1 year prior. That day is now and it will likely continue for quite some time now as prices are continuing to fall.

The active listings level in the local market is at record levels.



Sales are abysmally low for this time of year.


The months of inventory has skyrocketed throughout the year and is remaining at highly elevated levels.


Prices seem to fall when supply is high and demand is low. Funny!



In fact, the correlation between the supply/demand scenario and the consequent price changes is uncanny!


These days of turmoil in the financial markets are what many real estate bears have been warning would come because of the exuberance and overallocation of resources toward housing. It brings me no pleasure to see this turmoil and I wish we could have avoided it but it does feel good to be prepared rather than unprepared.

Vancouver Winning Race Down

Updated with September data.

Seattle Bubble Blog has been posting this chart for many months now as the Seattle market has been correcting along with all of the other bubble markets across North America. Vancouver is now no exception. Price declines are the steepest witnessed so far in North America and we shall see if this trend continues.

Thanks to Jesse for putting the chart together.

Canada faces housing bust: Shiller

Jacqueline Thorpe, Financial Post Published: Wednesday, October 01, 2008

The Canadian housing market could face a similar housing bust to the United States, particularly in more bubbly markets as Vancouver and Calgary, said Robert Shiller, the University of Yale professor who predicted both the 1990s stock market boom and bust and the US housing slump.

Mr. Shiller, co-founder of the S&P Case/Shiller Home Price Index, said psychology is the primary driver of bubbles and it appears that Canada has been caught up with home buying fever just as the United States and other countries around the world.

Asked whether that meant Canada could face a similar bust Mr. Shiller said: "Yes, especially in places that went up a lot like Vancouver and Calgary. I don't think Toronto has been quite as extreme."

Mr. Shiller said there was a natural connection between the United States and Canada.

"I would be surprised that the bubble that appeared in the United States and elsewhere didn't appear in Canada," he said in an interview with the Financial Post. "It's psychology, I think that drives it.

Mr. Shiller, whose book Irrational Exuberance came out in March 2000 just as the tech bubble peaked, said it was essential for the U.S. government to pass a financial bailout, though he believes the United States is facing a "severe recession," regardless.

"I'm concerned problems are deeper than can be handled by the bailout but that doesn't mean the bailout doesn't do some good," he said.

He said a bailout might help restore some confidence to the stressed financial system.

"What creates a crisis is a lack of confidence," he said.

He said the housing crisis was primarily a policy failure by U.S. authorities.

The U.S. government was "totally blind" to it, regulators failed to monitor the mortgage industry properly and the U.S. Federal Reserve had very low interest rates at a time of the greatest housing bubble of all time.

While homeowners should take some personal responsibility for the debacle, they were being goaded into the fevour by an establishment that endlessly pushed an ownership society.

"They were doing what was considered right at the time," Mr. Shiller said.

Mr. Shiller said human nature seems to predispose people to spectacular excess, fanned by a voracious news media.

"Until we had newsapers and other media we had no bublbles, he said.

While ups and downs in the market can lead to creative destruction the current housing crisis has morphed into a system problem.

"The problem is that perfectly good firms are in trouble," he told the Financial Post in an interview at the Ontario Economic Summit.

A bailout may not be palatable, government assistance is required when the system fails.

The trick is to reduce conditions that fan bubbles.

In his current book, "The Subprime Solution," Mr. Shiller proposes several measures to reduce bubble conditions in the housing market including better information for prospective buyers and broader markets that trade risk better, such as the housing futures he has developed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

There should also be new retail products such as "continuous workout mortgages," that go up and down with the value of the home equity and mortgage equity insurance.

Mr. Shiller, who would not give a precise forecast on the outlook for U.S. home prices, nevertheless said futures markets are predicting more price declines of 10% or more. His Case/Shiller index earlier this week showed home prices down 16.3% year-over-year this summer.

He expects things to get worse for the U.S. economy in the short-term.

"We're going to have a severe recession, most likely," he said. How quickly the economy recovers depends on policy.

"Unfortunately the bailout has hit a snag," he said. "There is resentment of rich Wall Street people. I am worried that the sense of trust, in confidence of each other is being damaged."

Mr. Shiller said he does not have another bubble in his sights as the U.S. economy will be "damaged for years."

"The housing bubble was of record proportions," he said. "Maybe the next big bubble will be your children's or grandchildrens...The excitement we had in the 1990s and in 2000 in the housing market is a fragile thing and it won't come back for some time."