Thursday, September 30, 2010
Another Record Week for Intermodal Rail Traffic
U.S. railroads originated 300,908 carloads for the week, up 10.7 percent compared with the same week in 2009, but down 8.2 percent from the same week in 2008. In order to offer a complete picture of the progress in rail traffic, AAR reports 2010 weekly rail traffic with comparison weeks in both 2009 and 2008."
MP: For the year-t0-date (38 weeks), carload rail volume is up by 7.2% and intermodal rail traffic is up by 14.7%. This marks the 37th straight week starting in mid-January of improvements in intermodal rail traffic compared to the same week in 2009, and except for a holiday-related decline in July, carload volume has increased for the last 31 weeks starting in late February.
Once again, Warren Buffett's favorite economic indicator improved last week and container rail traffic set an all-time historical high. It has to be a sign of economic recovery that the amount of raw materials, natural resources, grains, chemicals, metals, lumber, paper, glass, sand, gravel, ores, coal, petroleum and farm products being shipped by rail around the country keeps increasing week after week. After all, those inputs are being ordered by producers somewhere around the country, and will eventually be produced into some intermediate good or final product, and be counted as part of GDP in future quarters. And an increased volume of inputs moving around the country and the subsequent increase in final output has to eventually translate into more employment.
Markets in Everything: Ads on Currency?
This blog points out that the USPS currently allows customized "branded stamps," so maybe the Bureau of Engraving and Printing should follow with "custom branded dollar bills."
$27.5m Because The Feds Don't Like the Font.....
By 2018, MADISON AVE. will become Madison Ave. and will be printed in a font called Clearview, the city Department of Transportation says. The Federal Highway Administration says the switch will improve safety because drivers identify the words more quickly when they're displayed that way - and can sooner return their eyes to the road."
HT: Steve Malanga
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Companies Leaving California in Record Numbers
Update: See related article "Companies Fleeing California For Utah Over Confiscatory Tax Rate" (HT: Juandos):
"Computer software giant Adobe, computer game monster EA Games, and Internet auction king eBay are abandoning California to set up shop in Utah. Why? California’s horrid business climate and high taxes."
Online Job Openings Reach 22-Month High in Sept.
“Since the NBER June 2009 end of the recession, HWOL has increased by 1 million advertised vacancies,” said June Shelp, Vice President at The Conference Board. “The HWOL series trough in April 2009 led the NBER official trough by about 2 months, reflecting a rather typical pattern where labor demand leads at economic turning points. Following the rapid HWOL rises in labor demand in the 4th quarter 2009 and 1st quarter 2010, the end of 2010.” (see Chart 2)."
MP: Although the increases in the HWOL index have slowed in recent months, the 4,296,100 job vacancies in September were the highest level since November 2008, almost two years ago.
Teranet House Price Index - July 2010
SEPTEMBER 2010 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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According to the Canadian Real estate Association, from March to August of this year, more existing homes came on the market than were sold. Therefore, the resale market has been slackening across Canada. Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.
The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca
Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report. 1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada. |
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
The U.S. Has More than 12,000 Tariffs
HT: Juandos
We remain decidely bullish
The North American equity markets, including the bellwether SP500 index have nicely absorbed the large gain in global stock indices made last Friday. We discussed this in detail in our past weekend post.
Also, after a large SPIKE day up, or any day that takes out an important price level (support or resistance) another good forensic clue in forecasting, is to closely watch for price retracement or pullbacks.
So far, after two full trading sessions, the indices have given back very little. This is not only unusual - it is indeed bullish.
So although markets made need a little more time sideways, we are remaining with our BULLISH plan and posture.
Tonight, we have also included two important charts, that were included in our paid subscribers update.
1. The BKX or USA bank index (as below) incorporates what is known as intermarket analysis. This in an attempt to verify our bullish viewpoint in the general indices, by using so-called add-on analysis as first taught by John Murphy in his famous book (highly recommended) "Intermarket Analysis". As one will witness by the chart comments we made, this is confirming our bullish equity SP 500 index view.
2. Secondly, using the NYSE TICK (as below), we have included another method of confirmation by specifically looking at the NYSE market internals for confirmation. Again, TICK tends to at least partially support our bullish view.
In summary what we are teaching in this update, is that your financial analysis skills (and technical analysis in this case) will always become vastly more powerful and potent - when you learn to use the confirmation principle.
The charts also contain many learning comments for technical analysts. Enjoy.
Trade the trend since after all; trend is the only true market ingredient or causal factor that makes one a profit, or a loss if you go against it.
For now, the trend in our viewpoint looks decidedly bullish.
Regards,
James Kelly Sr.
Editor in Chief
www.KRTT.com
www.Facebook.com/KRTTcom
www.twitter.com/KRTTcom
ASA Staffing Index Reaches Two-Year High
"During the week of Sept. 13–19, 2010, temporary and contract employment rose 2.08%, pushing the index up two points to a value of 98 (see chart above). At a current index value of 98, U.S. staffing employment is 42% higher than the level reported for the first week of the current year and is 23% higher than the same weekly period in 2009."
The index value of 98 for the ASA Staffing Index is the highest reading since the week of September 22, 2008, just about two years ago. As I have previously reported, the ongoing improvement in the demand for temporary and contract employment, which is a leading labor market indicator, bodes well for positive broader-based and permanent employment gains in the future.
Global Air Traffic Above Pre-Recession Levels
1. The August gain in freight traffic was the 11th consecutive monthly increase, and the 10th straight double-digit increase starting last November.
2. Passenger traffic has improved in 12 out of the last 13 months, with the only exception being the April decline because of the adverse travel effects of the European volcanic ash.
3. Global passenger traffic in August was 2% above pre-recession levels of early 2008.
4. Global international cargo traffic in August was 3% above the pre-recession levels of early 2008.
NY Fed Model: Slim Chance of a Double-Dip in 2011
The Fed's model (data here) shows that the recession probability peaked during the October 2007 to April 2008 period at around 35-40% (see chart above), and has been declining since then in almost every month. For August 2010, the recession probability is only 0.08% and by a year from now in August of next year the recession probability is slightly higher, but only 0.61% (about 6/10 of 1%). According to the NY Fed Treasury Spread model, the chances of a double-dip recession through the middle of next year are essentially zero.
China's Currency Policy As A Form of Technology
We could also invoke Bastiat's famous Candlemakers' Petition, and think of China as the sun, providing us with manufactured goods for prices so low that it's almost like getting free light from the sun. After all, if China was willing to ship goods for free as gifts to the American people, it would be even better than subsidized low prices, and we would really want to ask the question: "What's the problem?"
Or we could invoke Steven Landsburg's excellent essay "The Iowa Car Crop" and look at trade with China as a form of technology. To paraphrase Landsburg, "The fact that there is a place called China, with people and factories, is quite irrelevant to Americans’ well-being when we get access to cheap manufactured goods. To analyze trade policies, we might as well assume that China is a giant machine with mysterious inner workings that produces manufactured goods at incredibly low prices."
And we could ask the question: If China could produce cheap goods for Americans because it developed some amazing new technology, we wouldn't complain, so why complain when the result is the same because of a currency policy that gives us the same result. Maybe we should think of China's currency policy as an "advanced form of technology with a giant machine with mysterious inner workings" that miraculously produces products for Americans at prices that rival the sun's provision of free light.
Update: See related post at the Coyote Blog "Obama Presses Chinese to Raise Prices to the Poor and Middle Class."
Monday, September 27, 2010
Recycling is Garbage, Part II
"Most of the stuff we throw out — aluminum cans are an exception — is cheaper to replace from scratch than to recycle. “Cheaper’’ is another way of saying “requires fewer resources.’’ Green evangelists believe that recycling our trash is “good for the planet’’ — that it conserves resources and is more environmentally friendly. But recycling household waste consumes resources, too.
Extra trucks are required to pick up recyclables, and extra gas to fuel those trucks, and extra drivers to operate them. Collected recyclables have to be sorted, cleaned, and stored in facilities that consume still more fuel and manpower; then they have to be transported somewhere for post-consumer processing and manufacturing. Add up all the energy, time, emissions, supplies, water, space, and mental and physical labor involved, and mandatory recycling turns out to be largely unsustainable — an environmental burden, not a boon.
Recycling makes many people feel good, but feelings are not the best test of environmental soundness. When it makes more sense to recycle than to throw something away; government compulsion isn’t needed (Don Boudreaux reminds us that "The benefits of recycling clothing are large enough to prompt us to buy costly clothes-recycling machines that we routinely use to recycle for tomorrow the clothes we wear today. We call these machines 'washers and dryers.'"). And when recycling is a profligate use of natural and human resources, government mandates can’t change the fact. Big Brother can force you to recycle your garbage, but that doesn’t make garbage-recycling green."
How the Cell Phone is Changing Lives in Cuba
~Yoani Sanchez, dissident Cuban blogger, in the Miami Herald
RBC waves red flag over Vancouver housing market
RBC waves red flag over Vancouver housing market
There's No Magic Keynesian Fiscal Wand
The late great economist Milton Friedman frequently peppered Keynesian enthusiasts in the 1960s and 1970s with a remarkably simple question that needs to be remembered today: Where does the government get the money it spends on roads (or bridges to nowhere)?
Friedman followed with an equally revealing observation: When the government engages in deficit spending, it must borrow the extra funds from someone who could have spent them on private-sector projects. An increase in government spending could be totally offset by a decrease in—or a “crowding out” of—private spending, as lendable funds are diverted from private to government uses. The net effect can be no net increase in aggregate demand—and no multiplier effect. Indeed, with the inevitable waste in government stimulus projects, the multiplier effect could as easily be negative as positive.
The country will learn anew an old lesson: Don’t count on the federal government to wave away the country’s economic troubles with some refurbished fiscal wand. The wand didn’t work in the 1960s and 1970s (it only contributed to “stagflation”). The wand is an illusion that should have died with Keynes long ago. We will also relearn the oft-repeated wisdom of Keynes when he wrote, “Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.”
The Political Obsession with Middle-Class Markers
"The government decides to try to increase the middle class by subsidizing things that middle class people have: If middle-class people go to college and own homes, then surely if more people go to college and own homes, we’ll have more middle-class people. But homeownership and college aren’t causes of middle-class status, they’re markers for possessing the kinds of traits — self-discipline, the ability to defer gratification, etc. — that let you enter, and stay, in the middle class. Subsidizing the markers doesn’t produce the traits; if anything, it undermines them."
(MP: For example, the political obsession with homeownership turned thousands, if not millions, of good middle-class renters into really bad homeowners and undermined the "American Dream.")
Megan McArdle responds and asks a great question: "Who but a lunatic would loan money to an eighteen year old with no job and no credit record, in the hopes that they will graduate college and begin speedy repayment?"
Let's Hope This Trend Continues.....
“A lot of libraries are atrocious,” said the company's CEO Frank Pezzanite. Their policies are all about job security. That’s why the profession is nervous about us. You can go to a library for 35 years and never have to do anything and then have your retirement. We’re not running our company that way. You come to us, you’re going to have to work.”
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Those Who Are Willing to Pay Higher Taxes Now Could've Rejected the Bush Tax Cuts in 2001
Linda McGibney responds this week on CBS Sunday Morning to Ben Stein's commentary last week "Raising My Taxes Is a Punishment" :
"I am an American. I am in the highest tax bracket. I also work in entertainment - which is what Mr. Stein does as well. I am fine with the tax increase. I think it patriotic that I am taxed in this way. I want to help my country.
I believe the fact that I can have a job this year, and hopefully every year to come, is a privilege. Mr. Stein, there are Americans who qualify for this tax increase under the proposed plan who don't feel "punished" by it. We feel it is our duty in hard times to help the rest of America.
I am a "have." I am willing to pay this tax increase. I'm not going to whine about it. I won't feel punished. I will understand it's the cost of doing business."
It should be noted that the current "Bush tax rates" are NOT the MAXIMUM tax rates on income, they are actually the MINIMUM tax rates. Anybody, including Linda McGibney, who wants to pay more in taxes can do that right now, and they could have been doing that all along. Ms. McGibney and others could have personally rejected the "Bush tax cuts" and continued to pay at the 2000 Clinton tax rates above in each year starting in 2001 instead of paying at the lower rates.
In case there's any problem with the IRS accepting the additional tax payments for the higher tax rates, here is the link to the Department of the Treasury website "Gifts to the United States Government" for "citizens who wish to make a general donation to the U.S. government." According to Treasury, "This account was established in 1843 to accept gifts from individuals wishing to express their patriotism to the United States."
Ms. McGibney and her supporters can express their patriotism immediately by making a gift to the U.S. government - there's no need to wait to see if the Bush tax cuts expire.
Markets in Everything: Name Your Price for Medical and Dental Procedures at PriceDoc
Now there's PriceDoc, an "online marketplace connecting healthcare providers with consumers looking for medical and dental procedures. PriceDoc enables consumers to compare and negotiate pricing on medical procedures in a given location in the U.S. while providers receive the benefit of generating patients who are willing to pay directly, out of pocket to the provider for their services. Featured within the web site are "Make Offer" and "Name Your Price," opening the door for consumers to negotiate with providers for the cost of their procedures."
Chart of the Day: Inflation-Adjusted Gold Prices
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Friday - Important Up Day - KRTT Affirms Our Bullish Outlook
Hello traders and investors,
FRIDAY - IMPORTANT UP DAY
The bellwether S&P 500 Index made a highly significant up move on Friday.To begin our update, yesterday's SP500 close was a new high since the summer 2010 correction. Higher highs and higher lows confirm a bullish trend. Although markets are dynamic and new information comes daily that must be assessed, our analysis of the bullish Friday September 24th, 2010, up move allowed KRTT to affirm our bullish outlook.
Those following KRTT forecasts, should know that we have been medium-term bullish since we correctly forecast a significant summertime low in early July. Throughout the May and June summer market correction, we had also labeled the summer corrective down move - as an Elliott Wave (EW) Four (flat). Thus, we are now within a wave five up - in progress.
We have witnessed several public EW counts during the summertime (including Robert Prechter at EWI who we respect) and recently that we believed were in err. Technically, the large upward thrust on Friday, also tends to serve as continuing confirmation of our viewpoint, that we are indeed within an EW wave five up.
This logical bullish perspective of an Elliott Wave 5 in progress, in advance of USA mid-term elections could not be much better, convenient, or suspicious.
PPT Action, Hint about Natural Law and KRTT Upset Mechanism Theory ©
In fact, the large opening up gap on Friday morning (gaps are significant if properly understood), the single day of the trading week, that institutions usually do not trade or trade lightly in, is suspicious of an action by the infamous plunge-protection-team (PPT). If one wanted to surge a market up or down, the best times are at the open, the close, and on Fridays or Monday mornings.The housing and retail sales data, cited immediately by Wall Street spin doctors as cause for a strong Friday rally, are weak in our intellectual perspective. We also strongly oppose, and do not support a notion that financial markets operate on financial news and economics, but rather we endorse a complex view of Natural Law (see blog pages) and other KRTT proprietary hypothesis. By example, the following as relating to upset mechanism***, is one such KRTT hypothesis as an excellent sample.
Of course, as far a economics and finance (The General Theory - Keynes) Man too has learned the ability to manipulate, upset, or distort the Natural Cycles. These interventions are scientifically termed by KRTT, as Man-Made Upset Mechanisms***. In essence, the financial markets will always summarize as being dictated by both Nature and Nurture*** (Nurture- Mans hereditary learned ability to impact Nature). When conflict occurs between the two, nature will always win out in the end, since frankly, nature is far more dominant and powerful.
Although, technically Friday could have been a logical commencement of a short-term downward cycle, this particular natural law cycle involved, KRTT now sees as essentially inverted***. Without herein fully teaching or disclosing how we have come to recognize inversions, we simply say they do exist under such KRTT Upset Mechanism hypothesis, and the theory involved and discovery process was quite complicated. Yet, in the end after reviewing the particulars was actually highly logical. We believe even the great W.D. Gann would be proud of our KRTT Cycle Upset Mechanism*** as a valid and valuable addition to his Natural Law discovery and works.
Thus, all budding cycle or Natural Law analysts, even such as those experts at the famous Foundation for the Study of Cycles, will need to eventually incorporate such inversion theory based on our KRTT Man Made Upset Mechanism Observations*** into their cycle models, if they are to become truly accurate.
Such KRTT theory***, in our viewpoint is indeed very high-impact, in that it changes both the classic Wall and Bay Street perspectives and even the Natural Law perspective about how financial markets really operate. What we are saying, is there is room for both to work and interact.
Our Upset Mechanism discovery and theory also explains via emerging science, why after too much intervention or manipulation by Man himself, (i.e. sub-par interest rates by Central Bankers for too long) financial crashes or even lasting recessions occur. These crashes, are in essence, a summarizing way of essentially Nature putting back into proper order, the proper natural cycle as it was meant to be. Finally this is an extremely important endorsement for laissez-faire economics.
***Should you wish to use, quote, write about or in any way explain or discuss our herein disclosed theory as written, we ask that you please protect our intellectual property rights and ensure that you apply recognition for such theory to Kelly Research Training & Technology (www.KRTT.com) until such time as KRTT publishes such theory, and other material in E-book format. This book will eventually be sold over the internet for a reasonable cost via our web site.
As to possible PPT intervention yesterday, of course this will never be officially confirmed. After all the FED has never even been officially audited or held accountable to anyone or any government body. Yet PPT intervention in advance of and to create a bullish stability before mid-term USA elections is now currently highly logical in our viewpoint. About the last thing Wall Street, Bernanke, or President Obama wants or needs right now, is a greater surge in the USA TEA party.
Also contributing in our view, is the fact that President Obama has done little to truly change Wall Street or the massive greed, low ethics, and the secrecy by investment bankers whom are already busy finding new ways to get around the few rules as imposed. What was once feared by Wall Street is now joked about. In essence, it is better and far easier for Wall Street, the FED and greedy investment bankers to deal with the devil they know, especially when that devil is ineffective.
In political contrast, the Tea Party movement which is gaining momentum on main street America, represents the most liberal and even radical of new-age thinkers in the USA. The TEA party is a massive endorsement for change, and even aggressive Republicans are considering using their logic.
TEA party members hate the Wall Street and bank bailouts and suspect, as they rightly should, the immoral ethics and self-serving leadership at banks and Wall Street investment banks. Worse, they dislike any large government that is extremely wasteful, any governments imposing more taxes, and especially governments that lie or tax the poor to make rich - richer, and yet seemingly secretly act in their own self-interests, and all those in public or serving society whom act unfairly. The Tea Party thus represents a very real threat to old school bankers, brokers, and politicians that think they can get away with murder, or excessive salary and deceit (figure of speech).
Any bailouts that were not distributed to or which benefited all citizens is a wrongful and suspect act to aid a select few, at the cost of others. If those so aided were incompetent, immoral, educated, or rich, it is a far greater injustice. So in essence, the Tea Party in many ways represents true libertarians as a growing American idea. The implications for ushering in much needed change, give the writer a glimmer of hope and light, in the very dark repressive ways of current government affairs - even as a Canadian observer.
The Tea Party would also logically support the all important Audit the Fed movement, initiated by perhaps the most intelligent leader in all of the USA; Ron Paul. Moreover, they might even demand more and better answers to the financial meltdown and ultimately discover the real truth that Central Bankers and their sub-par interest rates encouraged the massive speculation and leverage and very much caused (amongst other aspects not mentioned) the financial meltdown. These reasons and others ensure that the last thing that helicopter Ben Bernanke, The FED, Wall Street, or bankers would desire right now. We do not expect the TEA party to get a great deal of backing by big business, bankers or Wall Street.
SHORT-TERM - TECHNICAL TREND REMAINS BULLISH
The market action on Friday, also bodes very well for more short-term (ST) trending action up. On September 01, 2010, KRTT went officially bullish in ST posture. To date, that forecast has been spot on. Essentially, this serves notice that we affirm that view based on Friday's bullish market action and forensic clues that we decipher on an ongoing basis.In our recent KRTT paid updates, our clients have further been shown how and why the key 1130 price level for the SP500 is essentially an extremely important level. Essentially, one can think of it as an important line in the sand. The S&P cut 1130 in an upward thrust on Friday like a hot knife cuts through butter.
As long as the SP500 can stay above the key 1130 level, at present, KRTT will remain bullish - both short and medium term. We naturally reserve the right to change our minds, since an open mind is a most important and effective trait to a professional analyst or trader. KRTT constantly teaches and endorses an open mind as we professionally coach others.
Playing on our readership here and their intellectual curiosity (for those not familiar) about Natural Law, our paid KRTT clients have also been recently shown using three very different Natural Law concepts why November 21, 2010 is a fairly important cycle date calculated by KRTT that we will watch in the future.
A 30 minute chart is graphically posted to allow readership to witness the new science of professional technical analysis, completed by KRTT as a specialist for our paid clients. We are pleased and happy to offer it here and educate in limited edition for no charge to our followers to aid their own financial knowledge.
We also must say, this blog is highly experimental for KRTT. If you like what you see here, then may we suggest that you follow our blog and even tell your friends. We are still early in the development or experimental stages and have not yet promoted this blog in search engines.
Future content will be very dependent on our close readership and number of followers. We do have some exciting material planned assuming the proper support.
In our recent paid Real Time Update, KRTT clients were also shown three typical equities that KRTT has officially endorsed as strong BUY recommendations. Two of the three stocks mentioned just last Thursday surged over 10% in price yesterday, in a single day, and verified key or important breakouts.
Better yet, all three of the stocks KRTT recommended in our last paid update, are in major long-term cyclical bottoms with considerable upside potential.
In fact, the opportunity was so great in our KRTT viewpoint, we even termed the theme for that recent update; "Who wants to be a Millionaire?" Was that merely KRTT Irrational Exuberance, our ego, or was it just that we at KRTT are savvier in our understanding and forecasting of the financial markets. That will ultimately be for you to judge.
The best investment anyone can make is in gaining a sound financial education, but whom you choose to act as your teacher will make a major difference. We believe you should aim in the right direction - or, aim at KRTT. (PS - amateurs as found so easily for free over the internet, do not usually do a good job in our experience) In contrast, KRTT has worked for decades including as a financial professional with Bay and Wall Street firms, and now acted as a private advisory and financial specialist. As we say, we have experience on both sides of the trading desk giving us a unique perspective about the investment truth and how the stock markets really work.
KRTT Training for the Human Race.
Trade the trend and Natural Law and not the so called financial gurus
James Kelly Sr.,
Editor in Chief
www.KRTT.com
www.Facebook.com/KRTTcom
www.twitter.com/KRTTcom
Bull Market Rally in Lumber Futures As Economic and Construction Growth May Increase Demand
Lumber futures for November delivery rose the CME’s $10 limit, or 4.3 percent, to settle at $240.50 per 1,000 board feet at 1:13 p.m. in Chicago. This week, the price jumped 10 percent, the most since the five days ended July 2. The commodity has surged 38 percent in the past year (see chart above, data here).
On Thursday, lumber futures reached $243.50, the highest price since June 4. This week, the Commerce Department reported a jump in U.S. housing starts that revived prospects for construction materials."
Waiting for "Superman" Released Yesterday
"Guggenheim's documentary Waiting for "Superman" (released yesterday) focuses on aspiring students and their parents, mostly minorities, together struggling against the odds to get admitted into urban charter schools. Lacking the money for private schools, or move to the suburbs where the schools are better -- although not always good -- having only neighborhood high schools that are "drop out factories," these Americans have very few options. For many their only option is finding a decent charter school. But the odds for these young students to get selected in the lottery for a charter school is often worse than for students applying to Yale University.
And the film has villains. The clearly marked, cleared attacked villain that stands in the doorway to reforming our failing system of public education. The two major teacher unions! The two major teachers unions that together are the largest contributors to the Democratic Party; the Democratic Party that refuses to support legislation to require teachers to perform better and the Democratic Party that refuses to support legislation for the more innovative, less bureaucratic, effective charter schools.
What "Waiting for Superman" drives home is to improve our education system requires improving our teachers. Requires demanding our teachers get deep in the trenches, be allowed to be flexible and innovative, persist, and to be held accountable. This the teacher unions and the Democratic Party will not accept, even for the sake of our children."
From a movie review by Stewart Nusbaumer.
Filmmaker Davis Guggenheim talks about the movie:
HT: Mike Carlson
Update on the NYC "Taxi Cartel"; Medallion Prices Reach Record Highs in Aug. of $609k and $825k
Friday, September 24, 2010
Emerging Stock Markets Hit 2-Year High Today
For Young Adults, Health Insurance Is Available for About Same Monthly Cost as A Cell Phone
Young Adults Are Key to Health Care Reform; But There Are Strong Incentives to Remain Uninsured
MP: For the age group below 35 years, there were more than 28 million uninsured Americans in 2009 and that represented 56% of the 50.6 million uninsured (data here), see chart above. For the 18-34 year age group, there were almost 21 million uninsured, which is 41% of the total number of uninsured.
The federal government wants to require young, healthy people to buy insurance because if they don't, premiums for everyone else will go up. Insurance companies need low-maintenance, young customers on their rolls so they can raise money to cover benefits for less-healthy people the health care bill will require them to insure.
"If you don't have a mandate that gets in the young people who are cheaper, you're going to see average premiums rise," said Jim Kessler, vice president for policy with Third Way. "There's no way around that." But both houses passed two other reforms that create an incentive not to buy insurance.
1. The bills allow patients to basically purchase insurance whenever they want.
"You can literally buy an insurance policy in the ambulance on the way to the hospital," said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former director of the Congressional Budget Office. "You could imagine a situation in which you would pay the fines, stay out of the insurance pool, and at the moment when you need it, you go out and buy it."
2. The other disincentive is that both houses change how much older customers can be charged relative to younger customers. Analysts agree this will drive up the cost for young people, though it's not clear by how much.
"If you charge people a fair price, then a 50-to-60-year-old should pay about six times as much as a 20-year-old," said John Goodman, president of the National Center for Policy Analysis. But he noted that the Senate bill says older people can be charged only three times as much; the House bill says they can be charged two times as much. "So we're going to penalize low-income young people in order to lower the premiums for older wealthier people."
"Young people are going to bear a disproportionate cost in this reform," Holtz-Eakin said. The Senate tries to make it easier on the young by offering them a bare-bones insurance plan that would be less expensive than all the others. This is perhaps the keystone for the entire reform effort, because if young healthy people don't get into the insurance pool, everything else -- especially cost containment -- could fall apart.
MP: In other words, it seems like any real cost containment in the health care overhaul is pure fantasy, and will never happen under any conditions. Either you force 20 million young people to purchase insurance they aren't willing to buy now and overall costs go up, or the young people (and older people as well) pay the fine and remain uninsured until they need insurance (in the ambulance on the way to the hospital) and overall costs go up.