Friday, November 30, 2007

Statistical Speculation

It is the end of the month and you know what that means for data addicts like me . . . the local real estate boards will release their statistics package outlining inventory, sales, and prices for our local real estate market early next week - probably Tuesday.

So let us speculate, unscientifically of course, on what the data will be.

Last month saw 6 months of inventory in the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board area with no significant price changes. Prices have not risen in the Fraser Valley since the July / August period and seem to be stuck at that level for the time being. We need more inventory and/or lower sales to see further price declines. Will we see that this month?

Last month also saw 4 months of inventory in the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board area with modest price appreciation. Price growth is still robust in the GVREB area, although some areas are showing weakness, especially in the outlying areas. Inventory and sales are still bullish in the Greater Vancouver area and we need to see inventory grow and sales shrink before any price correction can materialize. When will we see this happen?

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