Monday, July 14, 2008

What to do?

It is clear that home prices in the Vancouver area have only just begun their downward descent with the Fraser Valley leading the way. It seems that developers are catching on quckly to the notion that they must provide steep discounts to move their product now and private sellers are slowly catching on to the same fact.

Now here is the background for my question:

I have found a home for sale that would likely meet my criteria. My criteria is this:

1) Walking distance to grocery store and other shopping (10 minutes or less). Preferably a rec centre as well.
2) Within 5-10 minutes drive to work. Preferably walking distance.
3) Does not need any major repairs or updates.
4) Price must meet pricing standard as follows:
Fair Price = {[1/(5 Year mortgage rate)*100] * [Annual Rent (estimate) - Annual Strata Fees/Maintenance - Annual Property Taxes]}

This is how my formala works out in this specific case:
Fair Price = (1/5.7%*100)*(19,200 - 2,000 - 1,500)
Fair Price = 17.5 * 15,700
Fair Price = $275,378

The asking price is higher than the current fair price but I'm fairly certain that I could get my fair price in the next couple months if conditions stay as they are. The price was just reduced 10% so it popped onto my radar.

But here is the question: Should a person purchase with the full knowledge that the property they are purchasing will likely fall in value even further? Why or why not?

I am personally comfortable with the risk of further price declines as long as the fair price criteria is met but I may not be the norm. I will also be purchasing with a 30-40% downpayment and well below my affordability level as the lenders see it so even temporary job loss wouldn't be a major issue.

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