Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Vancouver - Decline From Peak

Here is Vancouver's decline in house prices plotted in comparison to US cities since their respective price declines began. The Case Shiller indices track sales pairs much like the Teranet methodology and have been shown to be the most accurate house price tracking methodology.

Case Shiller data is as of April 2009 - data released June 30.
Vancouver REBGV data is as of June 2009 - data released July 3.
Vancouver Teranet data is as of April 2009 - data released June 19.



Dallas, Charlotte and Denver are 20 months into correction mode compared with Detroit, Boston, and San Diego which are over 40 months into the correction. In comparison, Vancouver is only 9 (Teranet) months or 14 months (REBGV) into its correction.



Time will tell if the latest uptick in prices has staying power but I would hazard a guess that we haven't seen the end of price declines. If we are 40 months from peak and we haven't decreased from current levels by then I will count myself as being wrong. Until then, I'll watch and wait.

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