Why am I celebrating? Real estate prices are down, down a lot in fact and down very fast. I am going to celebrate every decile (10%) decline in benchmark prices because I don't want families who want to purchase a decent home to mortgage their future away just for the opportunity to own a home. We have a long way to go yet but, as predicted, this is becoming reality very quickly. In fact, I may be willing to throw a -40% party at a local pub when the time comes with the first 40 beers on me - I think that would be very nice - one for each percent decline. At the rate things are going, we may not have to wait very long, assuming the pub is still open and I'm still getting a paycheck!
Sales in the Fraser Valley were low, so low in fact that November 2008 broke the record for lowest sales in one month as far as the current records go back. Only 507 homes changed hands in November and with over 500,000 homes in the board jurisdiction, that fact is truly astonishing. Talk about illiquid.
Active listings in the FVREB were still extremely high for the time of year. We should see a sizeable decrease in listings during December.
With high active listings and low sales the months of inventory rose to the stratosphere in November. There is over 23 months of inventory in the FVREB and this bodes ill for any quick turnaround in the local real estate market.
Price changes are highly correlated to months of inventory so I'll be looking for substantial price decreases over the next 6 months. I waited 6 months for the first celebration at -10% but I may not have to wait that long for the -20% celebration.
Benchmark prices for all housing types in the Fraser Valley are now back to February 2007 levels and I am looking for them to break through to August 2006 levels next month.
Benchmark prices for all housing types in the Fraser Valley are now back to February 2007 levels and I am looking for them to break through to August 2006 levels next month.
Wow!
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