November 2008 CMHC Data Redux

I recently posted about the CMHC data released for November 2008 and I wanted to revisit the statistics again because of a couple data errors and a desire to have a thorough examination of the facts.  Here is how things stand according to the CMHC Housing Now released this morning.

All data for November 2008:

Starts  = 973

Completions = 1628

Under Construction = 26035

Completed but Not Absorbed Units = 2261

This is the time of year for predictions so here are some things I expect we will see in 2009:

1) Starts will fall dramatically to the 12,000 annualized level.

2) Completions will also fall but will exceed starts for the next couple years.

3) Under Construction will fall to the 18,000 level or more by the end of 2009.

4) Completed and Not Absorbed units will rise significantly to over 4,000 units.

What do you think?