Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Ask Dr. Housing Analysis

With mortgage rates very low these days -- I'm hearing people pulling 3.5% on a 5-year closed -- the buy-vs-rent bugbear rears its ugly head once again but now, on the face of it, ownership costs have dropped significantly from last year through a combination of price drops and interest rate cuts.

I keep hearing comments on blogs and amongst friends and family about how the buy-vs-rent equation has decidedly shifted to the buy side, given one's propensity to own instead of rent, so if the math works why not buy now? In some jurisdictions the tax laws favour owning biasing the calculation further, from a buyer's point of view.

So instead of lecturing on my views, I thought I'd present a real-life case from someone I know, inspired by Fish10 and, for wily veterans of the Vancouver housing blog scene, the old "Ask VHB" posts of yore.

For a change this person is not in the Vancouver area. Please feel free to analyse the situation in the comments. I'll post the "correct" answer in a few days. You will be marked on your analytical ability; this is, after all an "analysis" blog so don't suck.
Yo,

Right. There is a tax scheme in Holland such that it is actually cheaper to buy a house on an interest-only scheme than to pay rent. Long story short:

I’ve got the 30% tax relief, so the first 30% of my salary is non-taxable (a benefit for being an expat.) Mortgage interest payments are deductible in full – so would save big time on that if I were paying interest only.

All in all it makes sense IFF [if and only if] the value of the house rises by more than 10% by the time I sell it (because in the purchase fee is approx 10% fees, all borne by the buyer). So I’ve been looking into prices and here in Holland they’ve just started to drop – last month prices dropped across the board.

Here’s the official government statistics site (in English!) with some fun stats.

By looking at this, to me it seems like it might be a good time to start looking, but would appreciate your nerdly view on things too!

Nerdlings, what say you...?

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