A quick update on GV benchmark compared to various US markets as tracked by the Case-Shiller HPI. I will show two graphs. One is the raw benchmark value the other is a 3 month moving average. The 3 month moving average (trailing -- this is not quite correct and I should be using balanced average as Thompson on RET pointed out but hey it is what it is) is probably a better comparison to Case-Shiller. But still, one can see the "spring bounce" is here. If you're buying on technicals, hey, throw in some moving averages to this graph and justify buying at today's values. Good luck with that. We'll have speaks in 2012.
UpdateI have run the numbers comparing the Teranet HPI to the benchmark. In the short run, the Vancouver benchmark tracks Miami very well on the above graph, but even more surprising is that Toronto's HPI is falling faster than Vancouver's from peak, though Vancouver has fallen more in % terms. I will post the graphs in a subsequent post. We should not be surprised that the benchmark deviates from the HPI, though from what I have seen in the long run the two will eventually track each other reasonably well. It looks as if the benchmark has "overestimated" price drops but may now be "underestimating" them.
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